W61 – 21 Sep 2024 – UPDATE 2 – Social

Because the conflict in the region is escalating, these are two possible scenarios:

A) If the war ends, the platform will start in Iran and then it will gradually expand.

B) If the war expands, Israelis will also be very affected. So the platform will concentrate on anti-Iran regime Iranians and also Israelis. If the war expands, it will hugely affect the US election because it will be held at the peak of the new war. So it’s predictable that the platform will soon spread from Iran/Israel to the US and Europe.

It will be a suicide for the Netanyahu’s camp if they insist on the war and try to expand it.


UPDATE 1:

The type of work I’m involved in requires that all possibilities should be considered. It means all elements that affect the situation should be considered. Not all elements are obvious. However, all such elements should be taken into account as well. Consider this example. If an object moves, people conclude some force has been applied to it. some people might guess the force was the wind, some other people might have other ideas. The point is that any possible assumption should be taken into account. If it is proved that the assumption is wrong then it should obviously be discarded but if not, the assumption should be taken into account. In other words, anything with a probability above zero should not be discarded so that future predictions will not neglect a factor that might change the environment.

What I will say now is not a deduction from past events, what I’m trying to say is that if a specific element (not considered before) affects the equation, how should the platform react?

Netanyahu clearly wants to save himself. What if some people around him in the background support him for other purposes? The war has changed the image of Israel globally, even its closest allies are now expressing their huge concern. This makes the position of Israel fragile globally. There are groups of Jewish people that don’t support the idea of the country of Israel.

All I’m trying to say now is that any non-zero possibility should not be discarded for the sake of future predictions because the next moves rely on forces that affect the situation.


UPDATE 2:

One of the ways to specify the probability of some assumption is to consider it in a bigger picture alongside other elements in the environment. This is how scientific theories are built. There are a number of assumptions and then it should be tested to see if it contradicts reality or not.

It’s normally hard to tell the difference between hardliners in Iran and Israel. For the sake of building a model, let’s assume there is a group in Israel that opposes the idea of Israel. If Israel fails, this idea will be removed from Judaism forever. However, for this purpose, a group in Israel alone is not sufficient. Although this group can push for policies and activities that destroy Israel’s reputation globally, there should be another group in Iran for example that pushes for policies that actually endanger Israel. If a regional war starts, Iran’s regime will be gone and the region will be destroyed. But there will also be huge immigration from Israel to other countries due to this huge conflict. Israel’s reputation will be hugely affected, and that can be the starting point to end the idea of Israel.

Again this is only a model, the aim is to specify how the platform should react to that scenario. It was said before that the coexistence of Israel and Palestine (written alphabetically) in the same land is critical for building the future. This will be a model that can be used to end racial conflicts around the world.

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