W24 – 12 Jan 2024 – UPDATE 1 – Social

There are two opposite options: A) an all-out war and B) the other option which was discussed previously.

People around the world are already fed up with the war and if it escalates people in the West and around the world will not side with Western governments, instead they will join the third front which condemns both sides of the conflict. On the other hand, Iran faces many challenges. Those tensions are waiting to be ignited so that there will be social unrest on a massive scale because there will be no security forces in the streets to control people. Security forces will be on the front line fighting with Western countries.

So this is a badly lose- badly lose game for both sides. The thing is none of the parties likes to be seen as a loser in this game. Iran can’t stop because it will look too bad and the West can’t ignore insecurity in international trading pathways. Both sides want a way out but they don’t know how to do it without being seen as a loser.

West should present a long-term Israel-Palestine plan with Iran (via Saudi Arabia for example) so Iran stops the attacks without being seen as a loser in the conflict.


UPDATE 1:

Many people in Western countries especially younger generations are angry about the way the conflict has been handled. They see what is being said publicly and think this conflict will last forever with these one-sided policies. What happens behind closed doors is hidden from the public.

It’s not sufficient for Western governments to try to reduce fatalities and casualties of the war and say it out loud so the public understands they are doing something. They should also present the public with their long-term plan for the region. So they are informed of their intentions. If younger generations think this conflict might start another Iraq war that will directly affect them things will be much worse. The solution for politicians is to present the public with long-term plans. Besides, the public is at the core of the plan. This will also affect immigration so it’s not for left-wings only. In an all-out war, there will be a large number of refugees. That is in contrast to building the region. So this is not a left-wing plan.

This implies that the other party (Iran) should also be included in negotiations. Because no one-sided plan will last for a long time. The Houthis’ attacks can be an opportunity to start public discussions about the long-term plan which Iran is also included.

When the public is informed of the plan, the cost of destroying it will be much higher.

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