It’s not known what Russia’s top military commander told Iran, but the message the meeting sent was that Russia could support Iran, a message to the West. However, it’s known to everyone Russia will not enter into a direct war against Israel and its capacity to militarily support Iran indirectly is very limited.
On the other hand, the message the West tries to send seems to be this: Iran’s regime is filled with people who are linked to foreign countries and so in wartime, this will impact the coherence of Iran’s side. Besides, trust in leadership is hugely reduced internally and things will become far worse if war starts because social conflict will add up to structural troubles Iran will face during an all-out war. So the West concludes that if Iran starts a war that will be a suicide. It will not be like Syria’s civil war because Iran will be in direct war with the West. This makes it more similar to the Iraq war, an internal outburst alongside foreign military intervention. Russia doesn’t want that. The West also doesn’t benefit from that because this will be devastating for pro-democracy movements in Iran. What happened in Iraq will happen in Iran and that is not what the West wants. that will be devastating for Iranians too. So no one benefits. Iran’s regime will be gone and Iran’s society will be destroyed.
Foreign ministers of Muslim countries will meet in Saudi Arabia tomorrow. If the war starts Iran won’t become the leader of the Muslim countries and Muslims in the fight against Israel. instead, when Iran is weakened from all sides, other countries such as Turkey will take advantage of that to do the task. So the war will be a suicide for Iran.
The advantage of Iran’s regime is that its supporters can be influenced hugely by propaganda. They consider Iran’s attack in April as a huge success. That conflict only proved how fragile Iran’s nuclear sites and other military facilities are. Still, when one reads things Iran regime supporters write on social media, they talk about another success similar to April’s attack impact.
UPDATE 1:
Iran executed a protester. That adds another huge mistake to Iran’s leadership’s previous mistakes. At a time when the Iranian regime needs to convince Iranians this is a war between Iran’s civilization and enemies, the Iranian regime reminds society of the social conflicts once again.
UPDATE 2:
Because people say things I should write this. A while ago I was told that my food had been poisoned and I would be killed. Due to some issues, I thought that could be a real threat. I have been threatened to be killed so many times but that time I thought things could be different. I ate that and I didn’t die but mentally I was prepared to die. The worst thing I could do was to be scared because I had to eat food for the rest of my life and I couldn’t be threatened with being killed each time I ate food. So I did what I had to do. I ate the food and waited to see what would happen and, in that case, nothing happened.
I have made it absolutely clear I cannot be threatened. If you want to kill me do it. However, you should be aware I have raised the cost hugely.
UPDATE 3:
The other issue is that I said there are so many people in Iran’s regime linked to foreign governments. I didn’t know it until I read it on news and social media. These days everyone talks about that. So I said what I had heard from Iran’s officials. and it had nothing to do with this particular incident. Those talks had been said some years ago.
The thing is that Khamenei is a simple and naive person. He can be easily fooled but not by those who object to his opinions but by those who bow 90 degrees to kiss his hand. Almost everyone knows that. Sometimes people so close to Khamenei write things that harshly attack Netanyahu but prescribe exactly what Netanyahu wants.
I have made it clear if I ever enter politics I will enter UK politics because, besides connections that were beyond my control, in the UK I can maximize the effect of what I do globally. But when I sit at a table talking with fellow Iranians or Palestinians, etc, I want who is able to defend their countries properly.