W49 – 27 June 2024 – UPDATE 3 – Social

انتخابات ایران فردا برگزار می شود و رقابت بین سه نامزد است. اگر جلیلی پیروز شود، برای همه بسیار بد خواهد بود. اینها نتایج محتمل هستند:

در دور دوم قالیباف یا جلیلی مقابل پزشکیان:

با توجه به جو جامعه و خشم عمومی احتمالا میزان مشارکت در دور دوم مشابه دور اول خواهد بود چون افرادی که در دور اول رای نمی دهتد به دلایل ایدئویوژیک این تصمیم را گرفته اند و احتمالا در دور دوم هم تغیری در نگرش آنها ایجاد نشود. بنابراین و با توجه به آخرین نظرسنجی ها احتمالا نماینده محافظه کاران پیروز می شود.

در دور دوم قالیباف در مقابل جلیلی:

بر اساس نظر سنجیها آرای جلیلی بیشتر از قالیباف هست و در جایگاه دوم قرار دارد. اما برای جلوگیری از جلیلی، بخش قابل توجهی از آرای پزشکیان در دور دوم احتمالا به قالیباف خواهد رسید و احتمالا او در دور دوم برنده شود.

برای ایجاد یک تغیر اساسی اجتماعی بایستی یک تشکل اجتماعی شکل بگیرد. تشکلهای اجتماعی تاثیرگذاری دراین برهه در ایران وجود ندارند. تمام مخالفین نظام در رد آن اتفاق نظر دارند اما در اینکه بعد از آن چه اتفاقی بایستی رخ دهد اختلاف دارند. پس جامعه ایران به توانایی ایجاد و گسترش تشکلهای اجتماعی نیاز دارد. برای این منظور بایستی اپوزیسیون قوی در داخل و خارج شکل بگیرد.

مهم است که چه توقعی از اپوزیسیون باید داشت. اگر اپوزیسیون به قدرت برسد بایستی به اداره مملکت بپردازد. سپس سوال است که آیا اپوزیسیون فرصت اداره جامعه به شیوه ای که می خواهد را خواهد داشت؟ و یا در هر قدم با مانع مواجه خواهد شد؟ بر اساس تجربیات گذشته مورد دوم محتمل تر است.

به عقیده من در این برهه اپوزیسیون بایستی بر ایجاد تشکل های اجتماعی متمرکز شود که برای تغیرضروری است. این چیزی است که اپوزیسیون بایستی بسازد. اگر آنها در انتخابات برنده شوند پیش بینی می شود با وجود موانع، نه زمینه را برای ایجاد تشکلهای اجتماعی می توانند ایجاد کنند و نه فرصت خواهند یافت تا کشور را به شیوه ای که می خواهند اداره کنند.

وقتی مردم اپوزیسیون را برای اداره کشور انتخاب می کنند انتظار تغیر دارند. سوال اینجاست که آیا ابزار لازم برای این کار را دارند. فکر می کنم این ابزار بایستی ساخنه شوند.


آپدیت 1:

این می تواند حرکت قابل توجهی برای اپوزیسیون باشد:

به علت خشم اجتماعی، اگر بخشی از جامعه تصمیم بگیرد در انتخابات شرکت کند اما بخش دیگر این کار را نکند باعث دودستگی در اپوزیسیون می شود. که نتیجه بسیار بدی است. بسیار بهتر است که این دوگانگی در حاکمیت اتفاق بیوفتد. جلیلی و قالیباف سیاست های بسیار متفاوتی دارند. برای اثبات این موضوع می توان به عدم ایجاد ائتلاف بین دو رقیت اشاره کرد. اپوزیسیون می تواند باعث گسترش این اختلاف دیدگاه در حاکمیت شود. اگر پزشکیان و یکی از محافظه کاران به دور دوم روند باعث اتحاد در حاکمیت و دوگانگی در اپوزیسیون می شود. بسیار بهتر است اگر اپوزیسیون (از جمله طرفداران پزشکیان) عقیده خود را با عدم شرکت در رای گیری ابراز کنند. در این برهه اپوزیسیون به رای احتیاج ندارد به توانایی ایجاد تشکل های اجتماعی نیاز دارد.


آپدیت 2:

یک کارزار برای حمایت از پزشکیان ایجاد شده است. با امضا این کارزار بجای شرکت در انتخابات رسمی، طرفداران او حمایت خود را از او ابراز می کنند و همزمان مخالفت خود را با شیوه انتخابات رسمی نیز بیان می کنند. این نمایش قابل توجهی هم از قدرت و همبستگی اجتماع طرفداران پزشکیان می باشد.

این یک بازی شطرنج است.


آپدیت 3:

انتخاب جلیلی به نفع هیچ گروهی نیست. تلاطم و تنش در فاصله بین حمله به سفارت ایران و سپس حمله موشکی ایران و پاسخ اسرئیل را بایستی به یاد آورد. مملکت تقریبا تعطیل بود. در چنین تلاطمی فعالیت اقتصادی نمی توان داشت. اگر جلیلی انتخاب شود با توجه به شرایط منطقه این تلاطم تقریبا همیشگی خواهد بود.

با انتخاب جلیلی بهترین شرایط زمانی است که ایران در فضای بین جنگ و غیرجنگ قرار دارد (که فعالیت اقنصادی تقریبا تعطیل است) و بدترین شرایط یک جنگ تمام عیار است.

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W49 – 26 June 2024 – Diary

Both petitions are blocked strangely. I will not be part of ambiguous scenarios. I will not be a pawn played by others. The scenario is way too unclear for me to be part of. So I’m out. I will do nothing about the election. Because I don’t know how far I can promise. And I want to keep my promises. So I will pause for now because I’m now in the dark and don’t play like that.

I will not collaborate with hardliners if they win the election. Instead, I will work on building communities, the third front.

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W49 – 25 June 2024 – Social

Khamenei claims each vote legitimates his ideology. In contrast, this election is being developed in such a way to be a referendum on his ideology, especially since he also claimed US students who supported Palestine, in fact, supported his ideology. This is a vote on Iran’s global and domestic legitimacy because there are alternative options that reject Khameneie’s ideology entirely. If Palestine supporters around the world join Iranians in rejecting Khamanei’s approach, this will be a global referendum on him.

Iranians might argue no vote is a vote for the illegitimacy of Iran’s regime. This is a passive objection. An active objection is to develop alternatives. One vote is merely the first step. The thing is throughout all those years no coherent social structure was formed after voting for those who promised a change. People voted and waited to see a change. This is not how change occurs.

There is no difference between voting and then doing nothing, or not voting at all. Iranians have done it for decades. They should change course.

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W49 – 24 June 2024 – UPDATE 3 – Diary

Yesterday I went to the Pezeshkian campaign to distribute ads for the petition. I was confronted by security people. I distributed ads as much as I could but it wasn’t effective. My social media profiles are all blocked. So I will go out and distribute ads in person on the streets. All other ways are blocked.


UPDATE 1:

In my discussions in other places, I have made it clear that there are three fronts. The authoritarian front, the free world, and finally the independent front that I aim to expand. So it’s very important for me to keep my independence. I will reject anything that undermines my independence. As I said my access to all my social media profiles was deliberately blocked. The aim was undoubtedly to tell me I needed them to form communities. That is funny. They deliberately block all my access to the outside world and then expect me to trust them. In the future, they will jeopardize the entire project once again to send me a similar message.

So I clearly declined whatever they tried to offer. I will never collaborate under those terms.


UPDATE 2:

So I will pause my campaign efforts. Pezeshkian campaigners couldn’t contact me because of security issues I suppose. As I said other fronts also pursue their own interests that are not aligned with that of the third front.


UPDATE 3:

between retaining my independence or winning but being controlled by others I will choose the former. I will resume my activities to support Pezeshlian’s campaign by sending emails to scholars and clarifying the plan further. Distributing ads on the streets wasn’t effective at all. If it was I would continue doing that but I will change my methods although I don’t expect replies due to security reasons.

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W48 – 23 June 2024 – Diary

The campaign’s next step is to connect people in Iran to people around the world. Khamenei a while ago praised US students who supported Palestine. It’s a good opportunity to connect those students to people in Iran via joint campaigns on this project because this project has two sides: people in Iran and the global community. This will be a plain statement that the global community wants other solutions.

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W48 – 22 June 2024 – UPDATE 1 – Social

این کارزار برای انتخابات ریاست جمهوری ایجاد شده، در صورت تمایل امضا و برای دیگران ارسال کنید. با سپاس

https://chng.it/Dw48LcMQ4x


UPDATE 1:

متاسفانه جمله بندی ها به هم ریخته که از طرف من نیست و با ادیت من درست نمی شه. اما بحث مشحص هست.

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W48 – 21 June 2024 – Diary

I sent an email to Zarif and discussed the Gaza project that connects people in Iran to the global community. No reply yet.

I won’t collaborate under any circumstances. Especially if I’m threatened that if I don’t support certain people I will be in trouble. Good luck with your attempts.

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W48 – 19 June 2024 – Social

The predictable pattern in Israel’s policy appears again. With new domestic problems, Netanyahu and Gallant threaten to escalate the war and make it as long as it possibly gets.

However, it is not in the interest of Neither of them that the Gaza war becomes one of the defining elements of the US election. It is best for them, that at election time, the war will be the issue of the past, as much as possible.

Obviously, Netanyahu wants to delay things, but what he does makes things much worse for him. Because the day that he leaves the office will eventually come and he will be in a very terrible situation at that time.


(To remind everyone once again, the only way to stop me is to kill me. This never changes.)

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W48 – 19 June 2024 – UPDATE 1 – Phys/Bio

In science, simple solutions favour over more complicated ones. If a model in physics also explains evolution and other topics in other fields then it favours over other theories because it will simplify science.

In the math course I’m working on, it is explained that symmetries organize people’s viewpoints. Psychological phenomena such as confirmation bias are like inertia. They stop people from changing their minds every day. However, when people are encountered by new perspectives, their viewpoints are challenged. That is similar to a sinusoidal wave. Different opinions push one’s viewpoint up and down but psychological phenomena try to pull it back to where it was. This is a wave.

The same is true about evolution. Every new mutation generates a wave. Nature will then be about interacting waves. The subject of the field of evolution will be to discover those basic symmetries that produce those waves.

So the language of waves is not exclusive to the theory of probability. This will be used in many different areas.


UPDATE 1:

last year I submitted an idea to Campbridge’s startup scheme. It was about a programming language. New AI tools have changed programming. In some years programmers won’t write codes line by line at all anymore. It was suggested this new approach required a new programming language.

Very briefly, the programming language is based on common building blocks. To write a code some of those blocks will be linked to produce some functionality. So AI tools will not write codes from scratch every time. They search through a long list of all available blocks and connect them.

The same idea can be used for the wave language. Some months ago I wrote something that there should be some universal format for arguments and any type of expressions. Imagine instead of verbs and nouns, etc. a language consists of objects (as described in OOP). Then since objects are built by common building blocks, different objects may share common building blocks. Those shared elements can interact with each other (augment or diminish one another). However, each object is restricted by a symmetry which limits the amplitude of deviation from the equilibrium state (i.e. the state of no interaction).

Then probability expressions can also be expressed similarly by block-based wave languages.

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W48 – 18 June 2024 – Phys/Bio

It was previously said that the wave probability would be constructed by moving waves so that each observation of that wave generates fuzziness. In the example of quantum mechanics different wavelengths produce a wave packet so it can be said that waves are moving in that space. However, things were ambiguous about probability and the concept of moving waves for probability was very imprecise in the previous writing. Today things will be clarified a bit more.

In binary coding, things are denoted by 0 and 1. For example, if someone wants to send a number to another person online, the number will be transmitted as a sequence of zeros and ones. Binary notation is one method for coding. Now let’s imagine one wants to pick an object from a bag containing three such objects. Denote objects A, B and C. If the experiment is repeated for N times, the outcomes might be:

S_1=ABAACBACCBABB…. or S_2=CBCBCBABBCBAAC…. etc. Since the probability is equal for 3 possible outcomes then different sequences of experiments (i.e. S_1, S_2, …S_i) are more or less similar because in all of them, A, B and C occur around N/3 times (assuming N>>1). So S_i sequences can be considered different microstates for the macro state where p(A)=p(B)=p(C)=1/3.

In thermodynamics, it is assumed that microstates continuously turn into other microstates, and after a sufficiently long time, all possible microstates for some macro state will be generated. This idea can be used in wave probability to explain the concept of moving waves. Each experiment in the above probability example is comparable to one constituent element in a thermodynamic system. Then S_1 continuously turns into S_2, …S_i.

However, the construction is still very incomplete. Mainly because S_i sequences are not waves. A simple ternary notation is used to denote a sequence of experiments. It’s obvious that this notation method is not unique. For wave probability, other notations should be used. Before proceeding consider this example:

Each language conveys meanings by concatenating different phrases. Each phrase is comparable to a sequence of binary code for example. Then a message is a concatenation of several such phrases. Now imagine a new language is invented where each phrase is like a wave then different waves interfere with each other. The meaning that is conveyed with a set of waves is not a simple concatenation of phrases (due to wave interference).

So the objective is to invent that language for the wave probability. This language is relevant for probability because S_i outcomes are different mental copies of the same system. They don’t occur in sequence (it’s not that S_2 occurs after S_1, etc). Since all micro-states co-exist at the same time, the wave language is more relevant.

In general, this language is relevant for concurrent processes. For example, in a society, people don’t make up their minds in a sequence, one person after the other. In reality, the viewpoints of people in a society interact with each other and reshape other people’s viewpoints while at the same time forming their own point of view as well. This is a wave language.

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