Ali's Journal

Before making the decision, Israeli leaders should know that China and Russia think they will benefit if the US and its allies are trapped in another long-term war similar to Vietnam. This will undermine Israel’s security as well. Israel is now making a decision for the entire free world. Power comes with responsibility.

The attack was a huge failure. People will ask whether such failure requires a response that is a gamble on the free world.

UPDATE 1:

So far people in the West and other countries protested against the war due to humanitarian issues. If the war breaks they will protest for the huge money they will spend on the war and the real effects on their lives.

Again, power comes with responsibility.

UPDATE 2:

To develop new economic structures that include a boycott mechanism, people should be hit with real financial difficulties. China (Russia) or Netanyahu will not benefit from the war. Only greens will benefit.

When the cost of war is unaffordable for both sides, there will be only one solution. However, it’s important to note that even if there is no war, Iran’s currency will continue to degrade. People’s welfare will continue to deteriorate and social anger will keep building up. These are also ongoing costs Iran cannot ignore. Iran has no other option but to totally change because the cost is unaffordable.

Sidenote:

I said it yesterday and think it’s better to write it publicly here. Before the recent incident, I had an uncertain plan to go to Dubai and develop the platform there. However, if the conflict persists, I will stay. I’ll go only when the threat is gone.

UPDATE 1:

In military battles, each side evaluates the strengths and capabilities of the other side. The same should be done before military forces decide to start a battle with economic structures and entities. The basis of military actions is to dagame the capabilities of the other camp. But in boycott-equipped systems, military actions will have the reverse effect. That’s the same as one dropping a bomb on their own camp (i.e. the pro-war camp). In this situation, the two sides are fighting together. The pro-war camp is damaging itself, while the other camp builds structures to undermine the pro-war camp,

Based on an Israeli source around 99% of missiles were tracked. Then this was Iran’s attempt to show its decisiveness. Missiles sent knowing they would not reach the destination was a treat, not a real attack.

UPDATE 1:

To Iranian leaders:

you are in charge and can control things as long as you hold the ball. Once you kick it, you should wait and see what your opponent does next. The correct action would be to approach the war and increase the threat but a few steps before that, backing off. So you still would hold the ball and be in control of the situation. You had shown your decisiveness. And you had scared your supporters. Now all that has gone. During conflicts, leaders should show they can make wise decisions.

UPDATE 2:

To Israeli leaders:

You are about to offer new players much greater influence if you decide to respond militarily. The chessboard now looks very different from 2 weeks ago. If the US is involved in Netanyahu’s war at such a fragile point (when public opinion is waiting for one push), things may turn against Israel hugely. Anger Toward Israel will be multiplied and Chuck Schumer and others know it well.

Most drones and missiles have been destroyed beyond Israeli territory. The military response is utter stupidity.

UPDATE 3:

I told Iran officials they would need to convince their supporters. Now they should convince their supporters that 99% of their drones and missiles being tracked and destroyed was a success.

They talk about setting up new equations. Netanyahu couldn’t be happier.

UPDATE 4:

The war has not started yet. Israel will most probably attack Iran in such a way as to make sure the war will start. However, similar to the killing of Sullemnai, when Iran convinced its supporters they needed strategic waiting, this time Iran should do the same. This is the new equation.

UPDATE 5:

I said previously Iran had to avoid being in the position of someone who had no option to choose. Now Iran has no option in how to respond to Israel, whatever it does. Angry people, broken by inflation and poverty are not Iran’s soldiers. In contrast, they are the highest force in the equation once the war breaks. The thing is before the Iranian government is pressed from both sides, Israel will destroy the country.

UPDATE 6:

Israel is not in the position it was on 7th October. With an unproportionate response to yesterday’s attack, Netanyahu will find himself in a far worse situation than where he is now because this time other countries are involved too. Iran war is not a long-term solution for Netanyahu. It holds off his problems for a short time but then his problems will escalate. Iran is in a weak situation, but so is Netanyahu. Pressure will exponentially mount on both sides if war breaks.

UPDATE 7:

Netanyahu’s plan is contradictory. He aims to remove global pressure by starting a war where other countries are involved too. But this makes the public opinion of those countries a critical element of the war, the very element he currently tries to avoid. The only force that currently backs the Gaza war is the Israelis’ support of the war. In the Iran war, on the other hand, Netanyahu will fight a war with those who have every reason to stop him.

I read the news about China’s huge military support for the Ukraine war. This is not surprising at all. China predicts that this will be a devastating war for the West, and Russia, weak and broken because of years of war, will be over-dependent to China in the end. The only winner, they calculated, would be China.

Recent incidents highlight the difference between two different mindsets. Those who try to advance their ideas by destruction and those who build. For example, Putin is in a vulnerable situation because all its resources and energy are spent on wars and destruction while the other camp spends its resources on building things. These two camps are not comparable.

UPDATE 1:

What greens try to do enormously relies on public opinion. In contrast to what Putin might think, if the US is dragged into the middle-east war it will be a huge push for that. The important thing is that the green movement is based on the private sector. By pushing Western governments into a huge conflict that doesn’t belong to their people (and most of their people are actually concerned about the human costs in Gaza), the push this movement needs is offered to it.

So this will be the outcome: Iran will be totally destroyed and a huge social uprising will be ignited in the West that is terrible for Israel and Russia.

At first, Iran said the time and the way the attack would be responded would be specified by Iran. The timing however is enforced by Netanyahu, at the time pressure on Israel is growing in the US. At least the response should not be enforced by Netanyahu.

UPDATE 1:

This is game theory. Netanyahu thought Iran would have two options. If it doesn’t respond fiercely that will be a sign of weakness. If it responds, all of Israel’s problems will be solved and all pressure will be unloaded from Israel. Both options are bad for Iran and both are good for Israel.

This is how Iran can view the game. If it responds militarily it will be a disaster. The other option is that not attacking militarily is not viewed as a weakness rather it will be a sign of strategic planning.

UPDATE 2:

There are different forces at play: pressure from Israel, pressure from Iran’s government supporters and the potential pressure from social unrest if Iran attacks. The gesture that the morality police should do more to control people is an attempt to stop the last element. However, the solution is to diverge the first and second elements. Iran should let the global community block Israel and at the same time, it should show its influence over its supporters and move them away from the same direction as the first element.

UPDATE 3:

If war expands to Iran, the US election will be affected enormously. It’s easy to predict that pro-peace communities will gain more influence.

There is also another element in play. The free world thinks Iran cannot do anything with element A. Iran on the other hand thinks the free world will control Israel to protect element A. Both are wrong. In fact, if the conflict escalates, element A’s influence will be multiplied, wherever that element may be, dead or alive.

If anyone ever doubted Netanyahu’s camp was so eager to attack Iran, Israel’s foreign minister’s immediate response makes it absolutely clear. Netanyahu wants to eliminate all options for Iran so it has to respond militarily. In chess, when an opponent has no option to choose it is called checkmate. Netanyahu tries to push Iran in a direction it has no other option. There are options for Iran to directly respond to Israel. Netanyahu tries to push Iran away from those options and push it toward the only option that suits him. Iran has options. It shouldn’t let Netanyahu limit its options.

UPDATE 1:

The conflict will persist unless Palestinians and Israelis live side by side in peace. Currently, Israel’s public opinion supports the Gaza war. This is how the global community can stop the conflict. To impact the people who live on the soil of the land that is meant to be the symbol of the tranquillity of religions.

UPDATE 2:

Eid Mubarak to all Muslims around the world. In this turmoil situation in the Middle East and around the world, wish them peace and stability. Shared ceremonies for Muslims are a push for their collaboration to build a better world.

David Cameron meets with Trump to urge him to support passing the Ukraine package. Such attempts to persuade Republicans are encouraged.

UPDATE 1:

I prefer not to write about UK politics these days but I wanted to write about it before, now I write it very briefly. Sunak said a while ago that the general election will be held sometime in the second half of the year. This means Trumpism will inevitably affect the general election. Therefore the Green Party UK must develop a platform to undo that. It was also said before that global collaboration is necessary in green activism around the world.