Ali's Journal

Systems based on collective wisdom are constructed by different, even totally opposing ideas. The essence of that system is the ability to retain the symmetry (i.e. the coherence) of the system even though it consists of distinct viewpoints. To stop such systems, it’s not a good strategy to try to divide different branches and viewpoints in this system. This makes the system even more robust because the system now contains more distinct ideas and the system learns how to reshape so that it retains its symmetry.

On the other hand, in systems that rely on the wisdom of individuals, the coherence of the system is very fragile if encountered with criticism. These systems have to reward admiring the wisdom of those individuals to retain the coherence of the system even though the wisdom of those individuals is proven to be very limited.

“Divide and conquer” types of strategies are ineffective against a collective-wisdom-based system. A totally different approach is required.

The main idea of “divide and conquer” is that the coherence of the other side should be targeted. The worst time to start a battle is when the coherence of a system is shaking at its core.

UPDATE 1:

Systems that are based on the wisdom of individuals will inevitably have to use violence to retain the stability of the systems. On the contrary, violence undermines collective-wisdom-based systems because developing self-correction mechanisms is the opposite of violent activities.

Corrupt systems can be noticed by the amount of praise their leaders get. When praising a leader is rewarded, people will praise them more. When a leader in a political system is praised so much, it doesn’t mean they deserve to be praised, it means people are rewarded when they praise the leader.

This disrupts the system’s error-correction mechanism. Political leaders correct their course based on feedback they get from the system. When admiring leaders is expected, that correction mechanism won’t function.

UPDATE 1:

There are numerous problems with the UK and other countries. I have been very critical of UK politics in many areas and will continue to criticize the UK government in the future, especially about environmental policies.

The issue is not that the UK or the US, etc are perfect countries, the issue is a willingness to self-correct and mechanisms that facilitate that. The question Iran should answer is whether it wants to self-correct and develop mechanisms to make that possible.

It’s not known what Russia’s top military commander told Iran, but the message the meeting sent was that Russia could support Iran, a message to the West. However, it’s known to everyone Russia will not enter into a direct war against Israel and its capacity to militarily support Iran indirectly is very limited.

On the other hand, the message the West tries to send seems to be this: Iran’s regime is filled with people who are linked to foreign countries and so in wartime, this will impact the coherence of Iran’s side. Besides, trust in leadership is hugely reduced internally and things will become far worse if war starts because social conflict will add up to structural troubles Iran will face during an all-out war. So the West concludes that if Iran starts a war that will be a suicide. It will not be like Syria’s civil war because Iran will be in direct war with the West. This makes it more similar to the Iraq war, an internal outburst alongside foreign military intervention. Russia doesn’t want that. The West also doesn’t benefit from that because this will be devastating for pro-democracy movements in Iran. What happened in Iraq will happen in Iran and that is not what the West wants. that will be devastating for Iranians too. So no one benefits. Iran’s regime will be gone and Iran’s society will be destroyed.

Foreign ministers of Muslim countries will meet in Saudi Arabia tomorrow. If the war starts Iran won’t become the leader of the Muslim countries and Muslims in the fight against Israel. instead, when Iran is weakened from all sides, other countries such as Turkey will take advantage of that to do the task. So the war will be a suicide for Iran.

The advantage of Iran’s regime is that its supporters can be influenced hugely by propaganda. They consider Iran’s attack in April as a huge success. That conflict only proved how fragile Iran’s nuclear sites and other military facilities are. Still, when one reads things Iran regime supporters write on social media, they talk about another success similar to April’s attack impact.

UPDATE 1:

Iran executed a protester. That adds another huge mistake to Iran’s leadership’s previous mistakes. At a time when the Iranian regime needs to convince Iranians this is a war between Iran’s civilization and enemies, the Iranian regime reminds society of the social conflicts once again.

UPDATE 2:

Because people say things I should write this. A while ago I was told that my food had been poisoned and I would be killed. Due to some issues, I thought that could be a real threat. I have been threatened to be killed so many times but that time I thought things could be different. I ate that and I didn’t die but mentally I was prepared to die. The worst thing I could do was to be scared because I had to eat food for the rest of my life and I couldn’t be threatened with being killed each time I ate food. So I did what I had to do. I ate the food and waited to see what would happen and, in that case, nothing happened.

I have made it absolutely clear I cannot be threatened. If you want to kill me do it. However, you should be aware I have raised the cost hugely.

UPDATE 3:

The other issue is that I said there are so many people in Iran’s regime linked to foreign governments. I didn’t know it until I read it on news and social media. These days everyone talks about that. So I said what I had heard from Iran’s officials. and it had nothing to do with this particular incident. Those talks had been said some years ago.

The thing is that Khamenei is a simple and naive person. He can be easily fooled but not by those who object to his opinions but by those who bow 90 degrees to kiss his hand. Almost everyone knows that. Sometimes people so close to Khamenei write things that harshly attack Netanyahu but prescribe exactly what Netanyahu wants.

I have made it clear if I ever enter politics I will enter UK politics because, besides connections that were beyond my control, in the UK I can maximize the effect of what I do globally. But when I sit at a table talking with fellow Iranians or Palestinians, etc, I want who is able to defend their countries properly.

When looked at from any perspective, that was a disastrous deal, no doubt. Khamenei thought to prevent the war his version of the deal would certainly be performed and he would be crowned as the king of the world. The issue is that when the first phases of the scenario were performed Iran would be in a terrible position and that would transform the calculations of the war. Khamanei of course didn’t notice that because the idea of becoming the king of the world was very pleasant. He had been fooled by Ahmadinejad before with the very same trick and the West knew he would be fooled again and again.

When the first phases of the scenario were performed, the coherence of Iran’s regime would become very fragile. Any element of the regime would be in danger of elimination because some of the most high-ranked individuals were eliminated for Khamenei’s plans and no one would be safe in the future. On the other hand, Iran is at the edge of social collapse and that changes everything. Russia busy with the Ukraine war cannot provide military assistance to Iran for a long time. Weak within the inner circle, among Iranians and abroad, Khamenei is in a terrible situation. He thinks to show some divisiveness war will be the only option but that only multiplies his problems. Internal conflicts in the regime will widen, and Iran’s social situation does nothing to stop that. So an all-out war is the worst cart Khamanei can play. In a football match when a team concede goals many times in a short time, the best thing to do is to calm the situation instead of frantically attaching because the result will be more goals.

UPDATE 1:

Khamenei might think if the war starts people will fight against the foreign enemy and will support the regime. The thing is the US will inevitably be involved in the war, and it’s not hard to predict the US counts on internal paralyzation of the regime to decrease its military presence. The West will surely try to minimize the cost of the war imposed on them and based on Iran’s current social and economic situation the best option for them is to paralyze the regime from inside the country. So it is predicted (with high accuracy) that the West will pursue tactics that benefit from the power of social dissatisfaction against the regime instead of turning Iranians into their enemies, as Khamenei hopes.

Iran really has limited options. in fact, there is only one. The tension should be reduced.

UPDATE 2:

Many Iranians care about the situation of Palestinians. It is predicted that the West will pursue tactics to ensure that part of the society that this war is not against Palestinians that there are solutions for the conflict and that Khamenei is on the way. This is particularly true because if the war starts it won’t benefit the republican party in the election which has to be more aggressive in the war (and impose more costs on Americans).

However, it is predicted that, putting Trump aside, Democrats and Republicans will eventually converge on this issue.

I will contact Nazanin Boniadi in the future to discuss her about social issues. Before anything else, democracy won’t be established with pro-democracy statements but mechanisms and structures that don’t let anti-democracy movements evolve.

UPDATE 1:

I said it before, I will stay in Iran for 10-15 years I think. Meanwhile, I will work on the math articles and after a few years, I will contact people for distance collaborations.

در سیستمی که قوام آن بر شخص نیست و بر پایه خرد جمعی است، بده بستان های پنهانی مانند چای دبش هرگز عمل نمی پذیرد.